Associate Safety Professional Practice Exam

What type of probability can be specified by the obvious nature of happenings?

1. A posteriori probability

2. A priori probability

3. Empirical probability

4. Subjective probability

The correct answer is: A priori probability

A priori probability refers to the probability that is derived from theoretical reasoning and can be established before any data is collected. This type of probability is based on logical deduction and the inherent characteristics of an event rather than on past experiences or observations. For example, when discussing the probability of rolling a six on a fair die, one does not need to roll the die multiple times to determine that there is a one in six chance of rolling a six; this is an inherent property of the die itself. The concept is grounded in the idea of equally likely outcomes, making it easily understood and calculated based on the nature of the event. In contrast, other types of probabilities, such as a posteriori probability, rely on observed data or empirical evidence; empirical probability depends on actual data collected from past occurrences, and subjective probability is influenced by personal beliefs or opinions rather than objective measures.